Sold TLT Aug 29 2025 $85 Put (66 DTE)
Selling premium where buyers have drawn the line — a tactical entry at support with asymmetric odds.
On June 24, I sold the TLT Aug 29 $85 put for $1.17. When TLT shows some strength I’ve been doing selective positions at this strike.
Here’s the full setup:
Entry
Sold TLT Aug 29 2025 $85 Put (66 DTE)
TLT250829P00085000
Opened: June 24, 2025
Entry Price: $1.17
Exit Target: $0.17 (To Close)
Underlying: $87.43
Buffer: 2.78%
Breakeven: $83.83
Max Risk: $8,500.00
Return: 1.18%
Prob. of Win: ~69%
Profit Target: $100.00Trade Thesis
I picked the $85 strike for a reason. It’s not just round — it’s real. That level has acted as strong support for TLT twice in the past year, once in October 2023 during peak-rate panic, and again this spring as yields retested their highs. Both times, buyers showed up. Both times, the downside stopped there. When you're selling puts, you want to plant your flag where others have already drawn a line — and $85 is that line.
At the time of trade, TLT was trading around $87.40. That gives us a cushion of about 2.8% — not massive, but meaningful in a low-volatility product like Treasuries. More importantly, we're not targeting a moonshot rebound. We're selling a put at a level we’d be willing to own long bonds, in a product that’s already been battered by two years of rate hikes. We’re collecting $117 in premium against $8,500 of notional exposure, aiming to close the position once we’ve captured $100 of that. That’s a 1.18% return over 66 days — with a probability of profit around 69%, based on delta.
Technically, the setup’s clean. TLT just bounced off that $85 zone again, and it's trying to reclaim short-term moving averages. RSI has turned up from oversold. Volume’s not screaming “breakout,” but it doesn’t need to. What we’re looking for is stability. If the Fed holds and the market stops pricing in another hike, long bonds don’t have to rip — they just need to stop falling.
That’s the real thesis here. You’re not making a leveraged bet on a dovish pivot. You’re getting paid to take risk at a level that’s already proven its merit — while the market wobbles in between policy regimes. If we’re wrong, we get assigned at a price we’re willing to own or roll. If we’re right, we book $100, add to our long-term TLT position, and move on.